Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

A.E. Sterk, M.P. Holland, P. Rabassa, H.W. Broer, R. Vitolo

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    Samenvatting

    Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small) values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

    Originele taal-2English
    Pagina's (van-tot)529-539
    Aantal pagina's11
    TijdschriftNonlinear processes in geophysics
    Volume19
    Nummer van het tijdschrift5
    DOI's
    StatusPublished - 2012

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