Prediction of the efficacy of a medicament on renal or cardiovascular clinical outcomes

For obtaining a prediction of the long-term efficacy of a medicament on reducing a risk of a renal clinical outcome or a cardiovascular clinical outcome, a multivariate risk relation is determined from values (8) of a plurality of biomarkers and the occurrence in the past (11) of said clinical outcome. The biomarkers include systolic blood pressure, ratio between albumin and creatinine contents in urine, and potassium, Hb A1c, and total cholesterol contents in blood. The risk relation is applied to reference biomarker values (16, 18a) for determining a reference estimate of a risk of future occurrence of that clinical outcome (2a) and to medicament affected biomarker values after a short-term treatment period (18b) for determining a medicament affected estimate of a long-term risk of future occurrence of that clinical outcome (2b). The long-term medicament efficacy estimate (19) is determined from the reference risk estimate and the medicament affected risk estimate.