BACKGROUND: Over-the-counter-medication (OTC-medication) use during pregnancy can be potentially harmful for the fetus. To successfully counsel the patient it is important to know if the patient is at risk. In this study possible predictors for OTC-medication use were identified and a model was designed to predict OTC-medication use during pregnancy.
METHODS: We performed a post-hoc analysis on data collected for a clustered clinical trial to study a screening strategy for Query fever. Pregnant women under supervision of a midwife were eligible for inclusion. These women filled out questionnaires during their pregnancy and post-partum. These questionnaires were used to determine the prevalence and to select possible predictors for OTC-medication use. These predictors were included in a prediction model using multivariate analysis. The discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed with Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis and the Hosmer and Lemeshow test.
RESULTS: Of the 1348 women enrolling in the clustered clinical trial, we included 1246 women in this analysis. The prevalence of OTC-medication use was 12.5%. The predictors for OTC-medication use in our cohort were: nulliparity, use of prescription medication, the presence of a comorbidity, Body Mass Index between 26 and 30 kg/m2 and General Practitioner visits. These predictors were used to design a prediction model for OTC-medication use. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic-curve of the prediction model was 0.667 (95% CI 0.620-0.714 P<0.001) and the predictive probabilities ranged from 6.6% to 57.4%. The Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated good calibration of the model (P = 0.640).
CONCLUSION: It is possible to indicate women at risk for OTC-medication use during pregnancy, using five maternal characteristics that independently contribute to the prediction model. The predictors are easy to estimate and the model is easy to implement in daily practice.