The development and internal validation of a model to predict functional recovery after trauma

Objective

To develop and internally validate the PROgnosis of functional recovery after Trauma (PRO-Trauma) prediction model.

Design

A prospective single-center longitudinal cohort study. Patients were assessed at 6 weeks and 12 months post-injury.

Methods

Patients that presented at the emergency department with an acute traumatic injury, were prompted for participation. Patients that completed the assessments at 6 weeks and 12 months post injury were included. Exclusion criteria: age <18, age > 65, pathologic fractures, injuries that resulted in severe neurologic deficits. The predicted outcome, functional recovery, was defined as a Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment (SMFA-NL) Problems with Daily Activities (PDA) subscale

Results

A total of 246 patients were included, of which 104 (44%) showed functional recovery. The predictors in the final PRO-Trauma model were: living with partner, the number of chronic health conditions, SMFA-NL PDA subscale score at 6 weeks post-injury and length of stay in hospital. The apparent R-2 was 0.33 [0.33;0.34], the c-statistic was 0.79 [0.79;0.80]. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good calibration (p = 0.92). Optimism-corrected R-2 was 0.28 [0.27;0.29] and the optimism-corrected Area Under the Curve was 0.77 [0.77;0.77].

Conclusion

The PRO-Trauma prediction model can be used to obtain valid predictions of attaining functional recovery after trauma at 12 months post-injury. The PRO-Trauma prediction model showed acceptable calibration and discrimination.