Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation

Daniele Castellana*, Sven Baars, Fred W. Wubs, Henk A. Dijkstra

*Bijbehorende auteur voor dit werk

OnderzoeksoutputAcademicpeer review

9 Citaten (Scopus)
83 Downloads (Pure)


The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.

Originele taal-2English
TijdschriftScientific Reports
Nummer van het tijdschrift1
StatusPublished - 1-dec-2019

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