TY - JOUR
T1 - Waiting to score. Conversion probability and the video assistant referee (VAR) in football penalty kicks
AU - Veldkamp, Joran
AU - Koning, Ruud H.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - The VAR has introduced a new element to football. Before, a decision to award a penalty kick could not be reversed. The player taking the penalty could take it relatively quickly after the referee called the foul. After the introduction of the VAR, every penalty kick decision is replayed by the VAR and also quite often reviewed on-field. As a consequence, time between the initial decision by the referee and the actual penalty kick has increased substantially. We examined the influence of the time-interval duration between the foul and the actual penalty kick on the conversion probability using a logit model. Also, we assessed the consequences of a VAR intervention, if any. We used data on all 2888 penalties awarded in top leagues in England, Spain, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UEFA Champions League, over the course of five seasons (2015/2016–2019/2020). We found that the duration between the foul and the moment the penalty is taken does not impact the conversion probability. However, whether or not the VAR intervenes with the referee’s decision has a negative effect on the conversion probability of penalty kicks. Football teams and coaches should incorporate this element of uncertainty in training.
AB - The VAR has introduced a new element to football. Before, a decision to award a penalty kick could not be reversed. The player taking the penalty could take it relatively quickly after the referee called the foul. After the introduction of the VAR, every penalty kick decision is replayed by the VAR and also quite often reviewed on-field. As a consequence, time between the initial decision by the referee and the actual penalty kick has increased substantially. We examined the influence of the time-interval duration between the foul and the actual penalty kick on the conversion probability using a logit model. Also, we assessed the consequences of a VAR intervention, if any. We used data on all 2888 penalties awarded in top leagues in England, Spain, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UEFA Champions League, over the course of five seasons (2015/2016–2019/2020). We found that the duration between the foul and the moment the penalty is taken does not impact the conversion probability. However, whether or not the VAR intervenes with the referee’s decision has a negative effect on the conversion probability of penalty kicks. Football teams and coaches should incorporate this element of uncertainty in training.
KW - football
KW - penalty kicks
KW - Uncertainty
KW - video assistant referee
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85179692176&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/02640414.2023.2292893
DO - 10.1080/02640414.2023.2292893
M3 - Article
C2 - 38100560
AN - SCOPUS:85179692176
SN - 0264-0414
VL - 41
SP - 1692
EP - 1700
JO - Journal of Sports Sciences
JF - Journal of Sports Sciences
IS - 18
ER -