Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?

Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, Simon van Norden

Onderzoeksoutput: ArticleAcademicpeer review

4 Citaten (Scopus)
3 Downloads (Pure)


This paper argues that initial estimates of productivity growth will tend to be much less reliable than those of most other macroeconomic aggregates, such as output or employment growth. Two distinct factors complicate productivity measurement. (1) When production increases, factor inputs typically increase as well. Productivity growth is therefore typically less variable than output growth, meaning that measurement errors will tend to be relatively more important. (2) Revisions to published estimates of production and factor inputs tend to be less highly correlated than the published estimates themselves. This further increases the impact of data revisions on published productivity estimates.
Originele taal-2English
Pagina's (van-tot)200-213
Aantal pagina's14
TijdschriftJournal of Macroeconomics
Volume47, Part B
StatusPublished - mrt-2016

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